The sector appears to be gaining some momentum but we need to see the strength continue and ideally broaden. Positive data being rewarded is good as there have been times where positive data got nothing than a quick spike only to be sold later in the day. The IBB is back at the high end […]
September 24 Biotech Update
An interesting start to the week, although we still like real M&A or business development. Unlike previous weeks, however, there is actually some interesting news to discuss. The sector is green and outperforming the broader market but the move seems pretty isolated so ideally this green will broaden as the day continues. 1. The big […]
Dave Trading – September 2018
*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
September 20th Biotech Update
Still a boring market in terms of news. The sector appears to have successfully defended the bottom end of its range but one could argue it done so simply by performing in-line with a strong broad market. Given the broader strength it would have been an awful signal to breakdown but regardless of the reason, […]
September 18 Biotech Update
The sector struggled yesterday and it still looks like testing the bottom on the range is possible. Perhaps the China tariffs news cleared the market a little and we might avoid that scenario. It remains to be seen but a green start today is nice to see but it would be better to see it […]
XENE Pipeline Keep Growing – Is XEN007 The Next Surprise?
Last week, Xenon pharmaceuticals (XENE) passed one of the most important tests in the stock market, where the share price closed on Friday at $14.05, above the $14.03 resistance line, despite the news of the $50 million public offering, followed by the news of upsizing the offering to $63 million at $14.00 per share, only […]
September 17 Biotech Update
Not a great start to the week in terms of trading as it looks like we are set to retest the bottom on the range (yet again). As long as the market does not start a larger move lower, there is nothing to think that the range will not hold again but as with any […]
SRPT’s CEO Fireside Chat at Morgan Stanley Conference
Sarepta (SRPT) had a great run last week, a kick off following MS fireside chat, closing at $152.76 the highest “close” since June 21st (highest 52W close 06/20 was $153.69) on nice volume, but the highest “Weekly-Close” in the weekly chart (Close & not highest price point). Looking for a continuation next week, while the target […]
September 13th Biotech Update
We are finally getting a broad snap back rally but it needs to be more than a simple morning rally that is faded as the day goes along. If this rally is not built upon during the day, then odds are it simply reset the RSI and opened up a path to retest the bottom […]
September 12th Biotech Update
The sector is certainly struggling and its inability to generate any consistent buying interest after the sell-off is certainly worrisome. All of that being said there are so many names that have been red everyday that there has to be a snap back rally at a minimum. CELG has lost over $1.2B in market cap […]
September 11th Biotech Update
While we have another snoozer of a day in biotech land, it does provide some insight into the trading bias of the sector and it remains negative. You would think that the path of least resistance would be to test the upper end of the recent range given the sharp sell-off but at this point […]
September 10 Biotech Update
There is nothing going on in the sector. No real news. No new deals. You would have thought that September would bring about some news but it seems like we are stuck in the summer pattern. It looks like that breakout failed its test and the next key to watch is what happens at 120 […]
September 5 Biotech Update
The hurricane thankfully missed us, so back in the office. The sector had a rough day yesterday but it only took us to the area that should act as new support. A quick dip under 120 or so would not be bad but it has to be quick. Honestly, we have already tested the support […]
September 4 Biotech Update
Another slow start to the week. Sometimes there are expectations for deals after long weekends but the sector continues to disappoint in terms of M&A. Given how important M&A was to many sector theses at the start of the year (and that includes me), it is impressive to see the performance. Explaining the performance is […]
August 30th Biotech Update
The range finally seems broken and pretty decisively to the upside. The sector is not just moving higher but it is outperforming the broader market on a relative basis. Given the strength of the move and the overbought conditions across the market, I would not be surprised to see a pullback in the near term. […]
XENE – Quick note, Positive TMS Data Presented at The European Congress on Epileptology
Today morning, Xenon Pharmaceutical (XENE) reported positive data from its XEN1101 Phase 1b transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) study. (LINK) XEN1101 Demonstrates Statistically Significant Reduction in Corticospinal and Cortical Excitability as Measured by TMS-EMG and TMS-EEG XEN1101 Demonstrates Greater Effect on TMS-EMG Resting Motor Threshold at Significantly Lower Dose When Compared to Historical Ezogabine Data XEN1101 […]
August 28th Biotech Update
We got off to a good start yesterday and there is perhaps some early follow through this morning but not much. We are inching closer to the upper end of the range and but are still within it. It remains a range bound market until proven otherwise, although we are also getting to the end […]
August 27 Biotech Update
A good start to the week both in having news to talk about and the price action. While it is easy to get excited about good price action, we remain in the range. Just as many felt that the sector would break down when we were at the low end, it is easy to get […]
August 24th biotech update
The snoozer of a week continues with the sector still chopping in its range. Perhaps next week we wake up a little but odds are we are stuck in this pattern until the fall conference season begins in September. 1. We will have some news this weekend with the PFE tafamidis data and while odds […]
August 22nd Biotech Update
Still not a ton of news and the sector moved higher with the market taking it a little further from the edge but still well within its range. I am still watching to see how the relatively performance in the sector plays out in that will we see large pharma continue to outperform followed by […]
