*** David Sobek is a disciplined value investor. Using models, research, and fundamental data, David devises a value for biotech stocks, buys when significantly undervalued, and sells when significantly overvalued.*** As a reminder, this is my personal guide. You can alter it in accordance with your risk tolerance. >3 Standard deviations – No position 2-3 […]
May 16 Biotech Update
We got some decent news flow to start the week both positive and negative. Who knows how that will balance out in terms of the sector general performance but this should be a week driven by news related moves with ASCO abstracts and the ABBV IPR decision still on deck. 1. The biggest data news […]
May 13 Biotech Update
I feel like we have been here before with the sector flirting with a major breakdown triggering another leg lower. We have yet to get that break but we are in another decision zone so the trading the next couple days will be quite telling. The selling is once again being led by spec pharma […]
May 12 Biotech Update
The sector did not do well yesterday but it is hard to call it underperformance given the broader markets. Clearly there does not seem to be any real interest to buy biotech even if there is no interest to sell it aggressively. Given the year we have had to date, I do not want to […]
May 11 Biotech Update
Yesterday the sector was a little weak but that is neither surprising nor a killer given the strength we saw Monday. That being said we cannot see continued under-performance and have a positive view in the near term. I am starting to think of the performance of the sector as less strong or weak and […]
May 9 Biotech Update
We have some news to start that week that all else being equal would be positive catalysts. The price action today off of the news should be a good tell as to whether sentiment has shifted a little in the sector but I would wait to see where we end the day not where we […]
May 6 Biotech Update
So more of the same yesterday and we are likely heading to a bounce in the sector as the recent selling seems to have been relentless. The bounce might not happen today but it is likely in the near term. The interesting part of the bounce is not whether it happens (it will) but whether […]
Buy DeLo, Sell DeHigh – GILD Earnings
Last week I tweeted about an options play I made on $GILD earnings. I consulted with Dave, who said he was not expecting much of a move. The options were pricing a large move, so I made a lotto play. It was a 5-wide butterfly that cost me $250. As you can see from the […]
Catatonic Economics – Nippon!
*** “I’m turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so.” – Janet Yellen *** All right, so maybe Janet Yellen didn’t say that outside a karaoke bar… but she is turning Japanese monetary policy! (Song by “The Vapors”, have to give credit where it is due) On April 28th, the […]
May 5 Biotech Update
We saw more of the same selling yesterday. It was across the market but it certainly felt like the sector led to the downside and failed to bounce when the market came back a little. Today is off to a better start but at this point I am not sure anyone thinks it will stick […]
May the 4th Be With You Biotech Update
It has certainly not been a good start to the week for the sector or really the market, although it seems like the sector is underperforming. As frustrating as it is after all of the under-performance, we cannot miss the forest for the trees and note that we are still not close to the recent […]
TRIL – A quick update from BloomBurton 2016 conference
Trillium Therapeutics Inc. (TRIL) – Nasdaq Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL) presented at BloomBurton-2016 Healthcare Investor Conference in Toronto on May 3rd, the same as last year the speaker was TRIL’s Chief Scientific Officer (CSO) Dr. Bob Uger, he took the stand in Hall A (the largest room at the conference) that was full with investors, press […]
Eteplirsen: Reasonable Evidence of Efficacy
The Adcom is over and Eteplirsen was voted down. A final decision still remains for approval. Much was discussed in the Adcom, the key arguments were over the following: 1. Adequacy of dystrophin creation. 2. Efficacy of 201/202 Trial vs Historical Controls Both are intertwined. Adequacy of dystrophin creation: FDA had little faith in […]
May 2 Biotech Update
It was not a great end of the week for the sector. Trading has not been good and earnings were fine but not exciting. As much as the sector has bounced from its recent lows, it still does not feel like sentiment has changed dramatically. It as an odd dynamic that I will talk about […]
April 28 Biotech Update
We have a little bit of news this morning. There is no way I can cover it all especially having a bunch of conference calls to listen to as well. I will focus on the big picture and dig down into a couple of the events. 1. We have been waiting for M&A and it […]
April 27 Biotech Update
This week seems to have started like last week. I think it was actually last Tuesday that the sector suddenly took a dive on no real news and yesterday was certainly not a good day. It remains to be seen if this weakness will continue as we are entering into earnings that could help the […]
April 25 Biotech Update
There is not a lot of news to start the week but this will be a bust week of news, so I will keep this short as we wait for the real news flow. 1. The biggest news so far is that the PRGO CEO is being replaced with the implication that old CEO is […]
April 22 Biotech Update
Yesterday was a great day for the sector (although volumes could have been better) but I do not know why. There did not seem to be a major catalyst but the sector outperformed early and only got stronger. This is odd as it seemed to be the mirror image of the fall earlier in the […]
April 21 Biotech Update
I think the best description of the sector is listless and uncertain. The price action has been mixed but more than anything else, there has been a significant lack of volume. No one wants to buy or sell biotechs and so they have been drifting with some good days and some bad days. We are […]
April 20 Biotech Update
I need to get this out early as I have meetings all morning. I apologize if it does not read well or is poorly edited. 1. One worry that cannot be far from investors in the sector is pricing. We have seen the proposed changes to Medicare part B and now we saw a report […]
